The Big Question this month are
Predictions for Learning in 2008. Here are my predictions, but realistically they are more about trends in eLearning and
eLearning Software.
Prediction #1 =>
eLearning 2.0 - Increasing Pressure
It's safe to predict that you'll be hearing more and more about eLearning 2.0 during 2008. While large scale adoption will be slow, specific solutions aimed at particular audience needs will be more common. There will be increasing pressure on each of us to understand eLearning 2.0 for ourselves in order to apply it within our organizations (
eLearning 2.0 - An Immediate, Important Shift). This will increase adoption of Web 2.0 tools by learning professionals (
More eLearning Bloggers). It will also cause us to look more closely at
Personal Learning for Learning Professionals - Using Web 2.0 Tools to Make Reading & Research More Effective.
Prediction #2 => Virtual Classroom Tools - Meeting Tool + Second Life Lite
A medium size Virtual Classroom / Meeting Tool will announce features in 2008 that are not 3D immersive, but that are more like Mii characters in a 2.5D world. This will allow more natural kinds of interactions in classroom settings, especially for things like breakout activities.
Prediction #3 => Authoring Tools - Captivate and Articulate Will Dominate
It rhymes and it's an easy prediction that these two tools will dominate authoring. Interestingly, they both were originally considered
rapid authoring tools but now are becoming THE authoring tools. Some lower-end, PPT + Audio tools will do well with none winning huge shares of the marketplace. Wiki + SCORM + Add-ins will become more common for easy authoring.
Prediction #4 => Less Authoring - More Web Pages
While we may want to use our authoring tools all the time, there's going to be more and more cases where clients (internal or external) are going to be just find with some web pages and maybe some
embedded training snippets or an embedded fun
Flash Quiz. Short, fast and to the point will be the standard. This will increase the discussion of the
relevance of ISD / ADDIE (see also
ADDIE Not Relevant?).Prediction #5 => Mobile Learning - Continued Scattered Examples and Disappointment
This is going to be another somewhat disappointing year for
mobile learning. While the
iPhone and other mobile devices continue to proliferate and while the amount of web access via mobile devices will continue to grow rapidly (now approaching 20%), mobile learning solutions will continue to find adoption in scattered, specific examples. More podcasts and video casts for audiences with easy access, think students, remote sales forces, etc. Specialized tools for mobile professionals. But large adoption of mobile as THE learning platform still won't be there.
Prediction #6 => Metrics-Driven Performance and Learning Interventions
My article coming out in January will spark discussion around what is actually a quite common model. And because it ties directly to metrics that matter to the business, this will get significant attention during the year.
Prediction #7 => LMS => More of What You Don't Want
Large players will continue to move towards functionality in Talent Management - likely mostly features that you really don't care that much about. Luckily a few will also add in more community and wiki capabilities. Unfortunately, these will be even worse than Sharepoint, the solution you already hate. All of this will cause of to continue to ask
Do You WANT an LMS? Does a Learner WANT an LMS? Unfortunately, you can ask all you want, you will still be doing a lot of work with LMS products this year.
Prediction #8 => Serious Games - Seriously Sorry, Not for You
They will continue to get talked about A LOT. And people will continue to be interested and excited. Likely YOU will get to attend a session on them. But YOU won't get to build one, or buy one, or participate in one.
Prediction #9 => Niche Online Discussions
Based on a series of events (success of small group discussions at eLearningGuild in the Fall, success of the virtual conference with George Siemens, discussion with Jay Cross and others about a conference for people with more experience, and discussion by Luis Suarez about a targeted virtual conference), I'm starting to think that the way to go is to have frequent, more targeted online, virtual discussions on particular topics. The format of the virtual conference that George and I put together wasn't quite right - still a lecture - threaded discussions weren't quite active enough and the questions weren't focused. We need a targeted discussion. For example, I just had someone ask about using Facebook in a corporate context as part of on-boarding. I'll likely schedule a call with this person to discuss what they are trying to do. Why not have several people involved in the discussion? Why not record it? Is the barrier the lack of free access to the tools? The overhead of pulling it together? My guess is that it doesn't take much more to get it to happen with a small group than getting it to happen with two or three people. And the barriers are getting lower all the time. I'm thinking this is going to start happening - A LOT.
Prediction #10 => Knowledge Worker Skills - Just Beginning in 2008, Big in 2009
The discussion of knowledge work skills is going to be BIG ... We won't hear much this year, but in 2009, this will be something you'll hear in a big way.
